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Fantasy Picks: Who to pick and Who not to pick at the Texas Motor Speedway

Six races and six different winners as we head to the Lone Star state where race numbers seven of the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series season will take place in Ft. Worth, Texas at the Bruton Smith owned Texas Motor Speedway.

The Texas Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile quad oval with 24 degrees of banking in the turns and 5 degrees of banking on the straightaways.

Who To Pick 

Greg Biffle – This would be the weekend to pick Greg Biffle because the Roush Fenway Racing driver has accumulated finishes of 12th, 4th, 10th, 1st, 5th, 4th, 5th, 10th, 8th, 3rd and 5th in the last eleven Sprint Cup Series races at the Texas Motor Speedway. Biffle’s last poor finish at the Texas Motor Speedway came  in the spring of 2008.

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson is still searching for his first victory of the season, and he has another exceptional chance to capture that first win this weekend as the six-time champion enters the weekend with an average finish of second in the last four Texas races as he has two wins, three top-tens and four top-ten finishes in that span.

Overall, Johnson has three wins, ten top-fives, sixteen top-tens and nineteen top-twenty finishes in twenty-one Texas races.

Matt Kenseth – Kenseth enters the race weekend with the overall best finishing average at the Texas Motor Speedway as in twenty-three career Texas races, he has claimed two wins, thirteen top-fives, sixteen top-tens and has finished outside the top-twenty in only one career Texas race.

Those great results have continued as of late as Kenseth has three top-fives and he has finished inside the top-twelve in each of the last four Texas races.

Martin Truex Jr. – A dose of bad luck has been with Martin Truex Jr. and the Furniture Row Racing team to kick of the 2014 season, but I think they can shake the monkey off of their back this weekend in Texas because Truex has one top-five, two top-tens and four top-twenties in the last four Texas Motor Speedway races.

Truex may be a bit of a risk this weekend because all of his prior stats came while he was driving for different teams but in seventeen career Texas races, he has eight top-tens and thirteen top-twenty finishes.

Who Not To Pick 

Carl Edwards – Edwards holds a risk this weekend because he either does really well at the Texas Motor Speedway (three wins), or he doesn’t (failed to finish four Texas races).  Edwards has three wins at the Texas Motor Speedway but in eighteen career races at the speedway, he has only six top-fives and eight top-ten finishes to his name.

Marcos Ambrose – Ambrose brought home his second top-five finish of the season a week ago in Martinsville, but it would be hard-pressed for him to chalk up his third top-five of the season this weekend at the Texas Motor Speedway because in eleven prior Texas races the Richard Petty Motorsports driver has only one top-ten finish.

Ambrose has zero top-tens and has finished outside the top-twenty in two of the last four Texas Sprint Cup Series races.

Trevor Bayne – Bayne will be participating in his third race of the 2014 season this weekend, but the third time won’t be the charm as in seven prior Texas Sprint Cup Series races, he has failed to finish in the top-ten. 

Brad Keselowski – I would not pick the Penske Racing driver this weekend because in eleven Texas Sprint Cup Series races, Brad has one top-five and a mere three top-ten finishes to go along with six top-twenties.

Brad has three top-tens in the last four Texas races, but we just don’t know if the Kurt Busch Brad Keselowski tiff will roll over to Texas this weekend. I would wait until the seas calm down before a roll the dice on Brad.

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